[Trainers] ["Correlations"] [TRULINE] [Wagering portfolio] [HorsesTalk]
Jim Selvidge and Trillis Parker work as closely with each client as the client desires. This includes a regular newsletter to TRULINE Users and BBS Subscribers, and detailed reports of ongoing analysis of results by track and each set of Race Conditions.
In the search for the performa of each significant handicapping factor, some individual Factors reflected up to 35% wins, but the sample size was huge - too large for any "angle play" entry on the Wagering Portfolio. But, combinations of Factors were discovered that generated above 50% Wins in specific Race Conditions. These are heavy duty targets.
As an example, if you were to isolate ten factors as primary, there are 1025 combinations of 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 Factors. Only professional horse players get into this kind of detailed analysis. Parker and Selvidge save them immense outlays in time and costs. For more information, E-Mail: horsestk@horsestalk.com.
Jim Selvidge and Trillis Parker process 8-12 tracks at least five days per week via TRULINE, February through August. Based on an analysis of a 50,000 race data bank, they found that primary focus should be given to certain race condition Trifectas and high percentage Correlations (single plays).
Individual horse Overlay Plays caught Winners paying $143, $127, and dozens paying $40-80, an aggregate 29% wins vs a $19.80 average payoff. For more information subscribing, E-Mail: horsestk@horsestalk.com.
For 200 year of Thoroughbred racing, until the mid-70's, most trainers came from families who had worked with the breed for generations. Until the 70's, most tracks would have maybe 100 licensed trainers on the backside. Today this can be typically 300-500, the majority being "hobbyist" trainers. One thing has not changed - roughly 40 trainers will take home over 90% of the Purse money distributed.
Almost all other authors (and their software) ignore the above. To them, "a trainer is a trainer is a trainer". This is foolish. Jim Selvidge has taught for three decades how to "handicap" trainers, and how doing so produces Wagering Portfolio profits by trainer application alone.
For more about profiting from trainer knowledge, read "Anatomy of a Race Meet" and "Money Management", and talk to Selvidge via E-Mail: horsestk@horsestalk.com.
All other computer software designed to handicap Thoroughbred racing is aimed at fine-tuning speed and pace to 1/100 of a second. Emphasis is universally on "Recency" in selecting a "representative race" for each horse. In the process, the creators think they are paralleling human track and field. This is a totally erroneous assumption, as can testify our clients who had previously marched to this drummer.
TRULINE can go back into each Thoroughbred's history for the "best effort" race. It is then assumed that for this race, the horse had the essential ingredients. The horse was healthy and feeling good. The horse was muscled up via the expertise of a competent trainer. Most likely, the horse had a tongue-tie, and most certainly "stickers" if needed.
When these "best effort" races are compared (adjusting naturally, for differences in distance, Class, age, sex, weight, and Daily Track Variant), the horse player then overlays visual handicapping to establish the prime betting target from the race contention, and the top candidates for Exotic Pool investment. For more information about TRULINE, E-Mail: horsestk@horsestalk.com.
Studies show that 98% of those who bet horses lose. These range from those betting "numbers" to the color of the jockey's silks to all other forms of seeking a "free lunch". This is gambling. Thoroughbred racing is very much like the stock market: those with the most and best informationWIN. Operating off of information is an investment.
Like the stock market, the horse player should structure a Wagering Portfolio. This will include BB+SR Win bet flows BB+SR "angle play" flows, Round Robin Parlays to Win and Place, straight Place and Show Parlays, Exactas, Trifectas, and Triples. Each category in the Portfolio has its Bank, and the investor knows the P/L of each on any given day. (BB+SR is the established optimum wagering format.) For more information, check out Selvidge's "Money Management" and "Anatomy of a Race Meet".